"The Coming War That Will
Shock America"(2)

© copyright 2008 Cubie Davis King. All rights reserved.

Based on a dissertation study by the author.

 
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   this war will put a lot of companies out of business. What is this WAR you ask?
 
The WAR for workers, yes workers. Not just warm bodies to fill seats. No, knowledge, skilled, and talented workers. We are heading for shortages the likes America has never seen. Adding bombs to the drop- is the fact that these shortages will affect companies around the world, not just the United States.. This means the United States will have to pull from the same pool of workers e.g.,say- engineers and scientists from around the world.
 
Anyone reading a  newspaper in America knows the United States is already importing most of its engineers and scientists from other counties. Our schools are simply not producing enough of them. You can't grow a scientist in a test tube over night. It takes time for students to graduate and develop what's been termed "deep smarts." It takes years. Because the "cycle of experience," takes time, and the fact that America is already behind the eight ball, these shortages in talent will threaten America's dominance and competivness around the world- as other countries like China and India pull from the same talent pool. All indications are- American companies are in trouble.
 
What Happened?
 
You see, for the last 50 years, the United States have thrived on the 76 million-strong baby boomer generation- workers born from 1946 to 1964.  Well there is only one problem, this co-hort is growing older and the oldest of these baby-boomers become eligible to retire starting in 2011. Herein lies the problem. Stay with me here.
 
There is growing evidence that massive numbers of these baby-boomers may opt for retirement in one form or another(either full-time or part-time). 
 
In fact, according to the government's own numbers- numbers reveiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), by the year 2010, the United States alone will be short some 10 million qualified workers. That's 10,000,000 skilled workers- and these shortages will show up in every business sector imaginable. You see with 65 million baby-boomers  eligible to retire(statistical numbers of boomers still living),coupled with our schools not producing enough qualified and knowledgable workers to take their places- we are headed for the perfect storm, and the forcast is unbelievably bleak.
 
Now before we go on, let me put that 65 million baby-boomers number in perspective for you. This number represents more than 40% of the current U.S. laborforce, and according to the BLS- once the oldest boomers reach age 65 in 2011- the U.S. population will begin to age rapidly, thus resulting in a shortage of knowledge and skilled workers.  
 
 

“It’s estimated that by 2010

 The United States

alone will be short

some 10 million

Workers.”

 

 

Take A Close Look at This Chart

 

Table 1

Chart of U. S. Birth Generations

 

Cohort

Birth Parameters

Cohort Size

Retirement Eligibility

 

Baby Boomers

 

 

1946 to 1964

 

76 Million People

 

Beginning 2006

 

Generation-Xers

 

 

1965 to 1983

 

41 Million People

 

Beginning 2025

 

Echo Boomers

 

 

1984 to 2002

 

75 Million People

 

Beginning 2045

 

Note: Chart of U. S. Birth Generations. Adapted from The Coming Knowledge and Capacity Shortage (p. 15), by Aiman-Smith et al., 2006, in Research Technology Management 7(6), 15-23.

 

 

The Retirement Bubble

 

     You'll notice the next largest co-hort after boomers are Echo Boomers (born between 1984 to 2002. Although the Echo Boomers will eventually provide a substantial labor force, this generation will not possess deep smarts for several more decades.  Thus in 2006, we are facing a “retirement bubble” as those baby-boomer professionals, especially technical professionals, begin to retire.  Knowledge, skills, experience, and networks will walk out of the door with retirement. Experts throughout the country are warning companies to prepare now. Even the federal government has warned us. Now you know by the time the federal government tells the public what is going on, it's often far too late.    

 

Companies need to develop extended supply chains of people, a pool, so they can train and develop workers to be ready to move up when needed. Three specific areas every company needs to pay close attention to over the next three years. They are:

 

(1) Knowledge management (KM),making sure the knowledge- key employees possess- is passed on to next generation of workers, 

 

(2)Talent Management (TM), making sure key players in your organization remain with the team, and

 

(3)Succession Planning (SP),developing and growing your own talent within the company -so you'll have people ready, willing, and able to assume leadership positions within the company when needed). These three areas are keeping leaders up at night.   

  

 

Management Must Confront this Problem

 

If organizations wish to remain innovative and competitive, management must urgently confront the coming knowledge and capability shortage.  Very few organizations do a good job managing the deep smarts embedded in their human talent, because it’s difficult to pin down and measure.Given the expected mass exodus of qualified workers, it should be no surprise that these are top priorities on the minds of leaders.
 
 
The War Will Intensify and Costs Will Skyrocker 
 
The most important corporate resource over the next 20 years will be talent: Smart, sophisticated businesspeople who are technologically savvy, globally astute, and operationally agile. The flight of key talent and low recruitment rates have become disturbing trends across almost all industries during the last decade, but the war for talent will become increasingly intense due to the shrinking workforce talent pool. Your company's very survival will come down to one critical issue - your talent. (1)   
 
And because the WAR for knowledge and skilled workers will expand globally, companies will no longer be able to buy in knowledge for reasonable sums- as demand outstrips supply.  The higher the demand, the greater the risk your most knowledgeable and valuable staff will walk clear out the door- as soon as they get a better offer.  One answer to this dilemma is to retain knowledge when your employees leave the company and make it available to new employee as they join. (2)
 
Not shocked yet- then get this...